Turkey: A First Nationwide Poll Results
Turkish Views on U.S. Congressional Armenian Resolution

Public Outreach Committee
May 14, 2007

Summary of Survey Results:

Rare is the occasion for Congress to impact and alter the foreign relations of the United States with respect to Turkey, a major strategic ally as the only predominately Muslim country in NATO and partner in the greater Middle East and Eurasia, as in the resolutions before the House and Senate that define the Armenian case as genocide. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has pledged to bring H.Res. 106, that purports that the U.S. Record defines the Ottoman Armenian case of 1915-1923 as genocide, to a vote before the House soon.

According to the first nationwide public survey in Turkey regarding the impact of a U.S. Congressional Armenian resolution, the evidence is strong that such a legislation of history and criminal charge against people of Turkish heritage would actually damage the cause it purports to achieve, namely, Turkey’s recognition of its own past and reconciliation with Armenia. Furthermore, the evidence is strong that Turkish public opinion regarding the United States will worsen to a point that relations and cooperation will suffer great damage, if not paralysis.

The feelings of the Turkish people on this historical and legal matter run deep, as 78 percent oppose legislative resolutions that legislate history, in the instant case, H.Res. 106. Nearly 75% believe that passage of a resolution will be reason to lower their opinion of the United States and support their opinion that America is increasingly anti-Muslim.”

The more significant finding of the survey, however, is not the opposition of the Turkish people, but how profoundly that opposition is felt. Almost four-fifths of the Turkish people favor strong action by the Turkish government if an Armenian resolution passes, including suspension of diplomatic and military relations with the United States. Only 7 percent would favor no action by the Turkish government. A plurality of Turks indicated that they would even boycott American products, services, and companies doing business in Turkey.

Critically, Turks surveyed feel so powerfully about this issue that should an Armenian resolution pass, 83 percent would oppose Turkey assisting the United States in neighboring Iraq, which of course includes the Incirlik Air Base which provides logistical support to forces in Iraq.

The reasons for Turkish opinion have less to do with the historical issue of whether or not the events constitute genocide, than with outside, American, politicized judgment of Turkish history and the Turkish people. In fact, three-quarters of all Turkish people surveyed would accept scholarly research by independent historians on the Armenian Independence movement and associated rebellion, and the Ottoman response of relocating Armenians from the war zones, and whether such a response constitutes genocide or a lesser crime.

Seven percent of the Turkish people surveyed favored passage of a resolution because they believe that Turkey committed genocide, and do not mind the United States passing a resolution to such effect.

The main problem for most Turkish people is that they do not consider the U.S. Congress a neutral judge of this issue. Instead, the Turkish people largely see Armenian resolutions as driven by anti-Muslim feelings and American domestic politics.

Indeed, if the goal of a Congressional Armenian resolution is to promote reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia, 73 percent of Turks think such a resolution will have the opposite effect and actually worsen relations between Turkey and Armenia, and Turks and Armenians.

The views of the Turkish people are firmly held regardless of age, income, education or even their present view of the United States. Significantly, 84 percent of those who now have a very favorable opinion of the United States responded that their opinion would deteriorate if the resolution passes.

The consensus among the Turkish people against a resolution by the U.S. Congress on the issue of whether the Armenian case constitutes genocide is not only universal, but also so powerfully felt that it could push anti-American (and ironically anti-Armenian) feelings to extreme levels.

Results for the surveys are based on face-to-face interviews among a representative nationwide random sample of the adult population conducted in Turkish. Fieldwork occurred in all 15 provinces of Turkey between January 27, 2007 and February 8, 2007, with a total of 1,021 interviews conducted among those 18 and older, with a margin of error of +/- 3.06 percent.

Analysis and Recommendation:

Rather than alienate the United States from Turkey and the broader Muslim world, Congress should explore ways to supplement the United States Executive Branch’s chosen method of encouraging scholarly and legal research in a cooperative spirit by Turkish and Armenian experts, with a view toward recognizing the tragedies of the past and reconciling for the hopes of tomorrow.

Rather than win Turkish empathy, an Armenian resolution from Congress will simply harden public attitudes in Turkey — and possibly in Armenia as well. Such hardening may even frustrate the free and open research and debate from which the Turkish people are benefiting today in Turkey on their shared history with the Armenian people.

The issue of whether the Armenian case is genocide, or a lesser no less horrific crime, or no crime at all is a legal question in which Ottoman historians can serve as expert witnesses. The task before the Congress should be to help promote a neutral, independent and credible mechanism for truth finding and reconciliation. That neutral forum should not only include expert historians, legal scholars and political leaders from both Turkey and Armenia, but also similar experts from other countries.

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© 2007